The results are in and they are bad. After tracking 68 experts and 6,582 market forecasts, CXO Advisory Group has concluded that the average market prediction offered by experts has been below 50% accuracy. Flip a coin and your odds for predicting the market are better.
I recently had the opportunity to interview Steve LeCompte, founder of CXO Advisory Group LLC and editor of CXOadvisory.com. His company can best be described as an investment-strategy-testing firm. Steve applies rigorous, scientific testing methods to investment strategies of all types and reports on the viability of those strategies in his blog. He has tested nearly 1,000 strategies during his career, all of which are available to subscribers for a modest annual subscription fee. The firm does not offer a portfolio management service or provide personalized financial advice.
CXO Advisory Group has been collecting data from market forecasters since 1998. The firm has tracked and graded thousands of market forecasts made by dozens of popular gurus over the years. The overall results are not good. CXO has concluded that the market experts accurately predicted market direction only 48 percent of the time.
Stock market gurus have always done a poor job guessing the future. The fact that anyone still listens to their advice is a triumph of marketing over truth. Fortunately, there is abundant data available to investors that pulls the curtain back on these Wall Street Wizards of Oz. CXO Advisory Group has been tracking investment [...]
Those darn gurus can’t seem to get it right. When a majority of market timers say the stock market is in a decline, the market rallies, and when they say it’s time to buy, hold onto your wallet. I have been studying and recording the poor timing ability of professional investors for more than 20 [...]