I’m a diehard index fund fan. I’ve written books on index funds, lectured on index funds, co-authored an award-winning paper on portfolios of index funds, and Forbes even named me “The Indexer” when I began writing for them several years ago. The problem with being “The Indexer” is that I don’t invest in all index funds. Truth be told, my portfolio is a combination of funds that follow indexes, quantitative funds that don’t follow indexes and actively managed funds. I don’t even consider following an index as being paramount in portfolio management as long as you’re capturing the risk premiums you’re seeking in a low-cost and efficient manner.
I tilt. Do you tilt? It’s OK to tilt. Many people tilt. I’m not talking about posture or politics – I’m talking about portfolio design. A portfolio “tilt” is industry slang for an investment strategy that overweighs a particular investment style. An example would be tilting to small-cap stocks or value stocks that have historically [...]
Technical analysis reminds me of searching for gold at the end of a rainbow. Children of all ages are mesmerized by the story, yet no one to date has found a pot of gold. It’s not because gold isn’t there – it most certainly exists in the mind of every child. The problem is the rainbow; it’s circular, there is no end to it.
Want to be a successful investor? Have a sound investment philosophy before trying to create an investment strategy. Your core beliefs about investing should drive strategy and also keep you disciplined in difficult markets.
Successful market timing requires two correct decisions: when to get out and when to back get in. Guessing right once is a 50/50 proposition. Guessing right twice drops the odds to only 25 percent. One wrong guess and you shoot yourself in one foot; two wrong guesses and you shoot yourself in both feet. This is what makes market timing so difficult.