The Portfolio Solutions 30 Year Market Forecast for 2011

Each year, Portfolio Solutions, LLC puts forth a very long-term forecast of market returns. The basis for this forecast are four primary drivers: Market risk as measured by volatility The Federal Reserve’s target for GDP growth Market implied inflation based on the difference in yield between long-term Treasury Bonds and long-term Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) [...]

ETFs and the Uselessness of iNAV

A mutual fund’s net asset value (NAV) is the sum total of its underlying holdings (including cash) divided by the number of shares outstanding. A traditional mutual fund will post its NAV at about 5 p.m. Eastern Time after each trading day. The fund company will then make a market in their funds by creating [...]

The Death of Buy and Hold has Been Greatly Exaggerated

The obituary was short and direct: “Wall Street gurus have pronounced buy and hold investing dead. Tortuous market conditions got the best of buy and hold, leaving investors with little or no return over the past several years. In contrast, investors who have put their trust in Wall Street gurus have been the winners.” Hogwash! [...]

Stocks are the New Bonds in 2011

Investors are beginning to flock to the safety of stocks and I expect this migration will strengthen through 2011. It’s a bullish case for U.S. equities. The safety of stocks? Has Ferri lost his marbles? No – at least not yet. For the record, I’m not suggesting that stocks are safer than bonds or that [...]